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FC Clinceni vs Arges Pitesti — Liga I 2018

FC Clinceni
FC Clinceni
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Arges Pitesti
Arges Pitesti
9/19/2021Liga ILiga I · Round 9Stadionul Ştefan cel Mare

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

FC Clinceni35%
×Draw28%
Arges Pitesti37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Clinceni
1.14
Arges Pitesti
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 80 away

creates per match

FC Clinceni
0.97
Arges Pitesti
0.86

allows per match

FC Clinceni
1.47
Arges Pitesti
1.31

finishing

FC Clinceni+0.00on par
Arges Pitesti+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Clinceni ↓

Arges Pitesti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

FC Clinceni or draw
63%
FC Clinceni or Arges Pitesti
72%
Draw or Arges Pitesti
65%

Winning margin

FC Clinceni wins by 2+
14%
Arges Pitesti wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

FC Clinceni 1+ goals
68%
FC Clinceni 2+ goals
32%
FC Clinceni 3+ goals
11%
Arges Pitesti 1+ goals
69%
Arges Pitesti 2+ goals
33%
Arges Pitesti 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

FC Clinceni (draw refunded)
49%
Arges Pitesti (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Clinceni at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.47 · 58 matches

Arges Pitesti away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.31 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Clinceni attack 0.97 + Arges Pitesti defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.14

Arges Pitesti attack 0.86 + FC Clinceni defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

FC Clinceni scores more
35%
level
28%
Arges Pitesti scores more
37%

Arges Pitesti at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Arges Pitesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Clinceni vs Arges Pitesti

Arges Pitesti beat FC Clinceni 1-0 in Liga I on September 19, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Ştefan cel Mare in Bucureşti.