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FC Clinceni vs Aerostar Bacau — Liga II 2018

FC Clinceni
FC Clinceni
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Aerostar Bacau
Aerostar Bacau
11/17/2018Liga IILiga II · Round 17Stadionul Clinceni - Arena 1 (Clinceni)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FC Clinceni72%
×Draw17%
Aerostar Bacau10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Clinceni
2.27
Aerostar Bacau
0.72

FC Clinceni creates 215% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 31 away

creates per match

FC Clinceni
2.32
Aerostar Bacau
0.97

allows per match

FC Clinceni
0.47
Aerostar Bacau
2.23

finishing

FC Clinceni+0.00on par
Aerostar Bacau+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Clinceni ↓

Aerostar Bacau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

FC Clinceni or draw
90%
FC Clinceni or Aerostar Bacau
83%
Draw or Aerostar Bacau
28%

Winning margin

FC Clinceni wins by 2+
48%
Aerostar Bacau wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

FC Clinceni 1+ goals
90%
FC Clinceni 2+ goals
66%
FC Clinceni 3+ goals
39%
Aerostar Bacau 1+ goals
51%
Aerostar Bacau 2+ goals
16%
Aerostar Bacau 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

FC Clinceni (draw refunded)
87%
Aerostar Bacau (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Clinceni at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.47 · 19 matches

Aerostar Bacau away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.23 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Clinceni attack 2.32 + Aerostar Bacau defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.27

Aerostar Bacau attack 0.97 + FC Clinceni defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

FC Clinceni scores more
72%
level
17%
Aerostar Bacau scores more
10%

FC Clinceni at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "FC Clinceni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Clinceni vs Aerostar Bacau

FC Clinceni beat Aerostar Bacau 2-1 in Liga II on November 17, 2018.

The match was played at Stadionul Clinceni - Arena 1 (Clinceni).