FC Clinceni 3–1 ACS Sirineasa: Result & Stats

FC Clinceni

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

ACS Sirineasa

5/4/2019

Liga II · Round 33Stadionul Clinceni - Arena 1 (Clinceni)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FC Clinceni64%

×Draw21%

ACS Sirineasa15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC ClinceniExpected goals in this matchACS Sirineasa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

0.79

FC Clinceni

1.94

ACS Sirineasa

0.79

FC Clinceni creates 146% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 84 away

2.32

creates per match

1.11

0.47

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

FC Clinceni

2.32

ACS Sirineasa

1.11

allows per match

FC Clinceni

0.47

ACS Sirineasa

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Clinceni+0.00on par

ACS Sirineasa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Clinceni ↓

ACS Sirineasa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

FC Clinceni or draw

85%

FC Clinceni or ACS Sirineasa

79%

Draw or ACS Sirineasa

36%

Winning margin

FC Clinceni wins by 2+

39%

ACS Sirineasa wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

FC Clinceni 1+ goals

86%

FC Clinceni 2+ goals

58%

FC Clinceni 3+ goals

30%

ACS Sirineasa 1+ goals

55%

ACS Sirineasa 2+ goals

19%

ACS Sirineasa 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

FC Clinceni (draw refunded)

82%

ACS Sirineasa (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Clinceni at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.47 · 19 matches

ACS Sirineasa away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.56 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Clinceni attack 2.32 + ACS Sirineasa defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.94

ACS Sirineasa attack 1.11 + FC Clinceni defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

FC Clinceni scores more

64%

level

21%

ACS Sirineasa scores more

15%

FC Clinceni at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "FC Clinceni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff