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FC Clinceni vs ACS Poli Timisoara — Liga II 2018

FC Clinceni
FC Clinceni
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
ACS Poli Timisoara
ACS Poli Timisoara
9/8/2018Liga IILiga II · Round 6Stadionul Clinceni - Arena 1 (Clinceni)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FC Clinceni75%
×Draw17%
ACS Poli Timisoara8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Clinceni
2.16
ACS Poli Timisoara
0.52

FC Clinceni creates 315% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

FC Clinceni
2.32
ACS Poli Timisoara
0.58

allows per match

FC Clinceni
0.47
ACS Poli Timisoara
2.00

finishing

FC Clinceni+0.00on par
ACS Poli Timisoara+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Clinceni ↓

ACS Poli Timisoara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

FC Clinceni or draw
92%
FC Clinceni or ACS Poli Timisoara
83%
Draw or ACS Poli Timisoara
25%

Winning margin

FC Clinceni wins by 2+
50%
ACS Poli Timisoara wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

FC Clinceni 1+ goals
88%
FC Clinceni 2+ goals
63%
FC Clinceni 3+ goals
36%
ACS Poli Timisoara 1+ goals
41%
ACS Poli Timisoara 2+ goals
10%
ACS Poli Timisoara 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

FC Clinceni (draw refunded)
91%
ACS Poli Timisoara (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Clinceni at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.47 · 19 matches

ACS Poli Timisoara away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Clinceni attack 2.32 + ACS Poli Timisoara defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.16

ACS Poli Timisoara attack 0.58 + FC Clinceni defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

FC Clinceni scores more
75%
level
17%
ACS Poli Timisoara scores more
8%

FC Clinceni at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "FC Clinceni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Clinceni vs ACS Poli Timisoara

FC Clinceni beat ACS Poli Timisoara 1-0 in Liga II on September 8, 2018.

The match was played at Stadionul Clinceni - Arena 1 (Clinceni).