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FC Cincinnati vs Toronto FC — Major League Soccer 2026

FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Toronto FC
Toronto FC
2/25/2024Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 2TQL Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

FC Cincinnati43%
×Draw25%
Toronto FC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Cincinnati
1.51
Toronto FC
1.27

FC Cincinnati creates 19% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

FC Cincinnati
1.68
Toronto FC
1.03

allows per match

FC Cincinnati
1.52
Toronto FC
1.34

finishing

FC Cincinnati+0.16scores more
Toronto FC+0.08on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Cincinnati ↓

Toronto FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

FC Cincinnati or draw
68%
FC Cincinnati or Toronto FC
75%
Draw or Toronto FC
57%

Winning margin

FC Cincinnati wins by 2+
21%
Toronto FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

FC Cincinnati 1+ goals
78%
FC Cincinnati 2+ goals
44%
FC Cincinnati 3+ goals
19%
Toronto FC 1+ goals
72%
Toronto FC 2+ goals
36%
Toronto FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FC Cincinnati (draw refunded)
57%
Toronto FC (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Cincinnati at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.52 · 19 matches

Toronto FC away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.34 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Cincinnati attack 1.68 + Toronto FC defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.51

Toronto FC attack 1.03 + FC Cincinnati defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FC Cincinnati scores more
43%
level
25%
Toronto FC scores more
32%

FC Cincinnati at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FC Cincinnati will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Major League Soccer: FC Cincinnati 0–0 Toronto FC

FC Cincinnati and Toronto FC drew 0-0 in Major League Soccer on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at TQL Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio.