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FC Cincinnati vs New York City FC — Major League Soccer 2026

FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
New York City FC
New York City FC
3/23/2024Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 7TQL Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

FC Cincinnati40%
×Draw25%
New York City FC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Cincinnati
1.49
New York City FC
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

FC Cincinnati
1.68
New York City FC
1.23

allows per match

FC Cincinnati
1.52
New York City FC
1.30

finishing

FC Cincinnati+0.16scores more
New York City FC+0.14scores more

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Cincinnati ↓

New York City FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

FC Cincinnati or draw
65%
FC Cincinnati or New York City FC
75%
Draw or New York City FC
60%

Winning margin

FC Cincinnati wins by 2+
19%
New York City FC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

FC Cincinnati 1+ goals
77%
FC Cincinnati 2+ goals
44%
FC Cincinnati 3+ goals
19%
New York City FC 1+ goals
75%
New York City FC 2+ goals
40%
New York City FC 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

FC Cincinnati (draw refunded)
53%
New York City FC (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Cincinnati at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.52 · 19 matches

New York City FC away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.30 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Cincinnati attack 1.68 + New York City FC defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.49

New York City FC attack 1.23 + FC Cincinnati defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC Cincinnati scores more
40%
level
25%
New York City FC scores more
35%

FC Cincinnati at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC Cincinnati will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Cincinnati 1 – 0 New York City FC

FC Cincinnati beat New York City FC 1-0 in Major League Soccer on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at TQL Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio.