FC Cincinnati 0–1 Chicago Fire: Result & Stats

FC Cincinnati

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Chicago Fire

7/17/2024

Major League Soccer · Round 35TQL Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

FC Cincinnati39%

×Draw24%

Chicago Fire37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC CincinnatiExpected goals in this matchChicago Fire

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.48

FC Cincinnati

1.53

Chicago Fire

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

1.68

creates per match

1.45

1.52

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

FC Cincinnati

1.68

Chicago Fire

1.45

allows per match

FC Cincinnati

1.52

Chicago Fire

1.38

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

+0.50scores more than expected

finishing

FC Cincinnati+0.16scores more

Chicago Fire+0.50scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Cincinnati ↓

Chicago Fire →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

FC Cincinnati or draw

63%

FC Cincinnati or Chicago Fire

76%

Draw or Chicago Fire

61%

Winning margin

FC Cincinnati wins by 2+

19%

Chicago Fire wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

FC Cincinnati 1+ goals

78%

FC Cincinnati 2+ goals

45%

FC Cincinnati 3+ goals

20%

Chicago Fire 1+ goals

77%

Chicago Fire 2+ goals

43%

Chicago Fire 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

FC Cincinnati (draw refunded)

51%

Chicago Fire (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Cincinnati at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.52 · 19 matches

Chicago Fire away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.38 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Cincinnati attack 1.68 + Chicago Fire defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.53

Chicago Fire attack 1.45 + FC Cincinnati defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC Cincinnati scores more

39%

level

24%

Chicago Fire scores more

37%

FC Cincinnati at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FC Cincinnati will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff