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FC Cincinnati II vs New England II — MLS Next Pro 2026

FC Cincinnati II
FC Cincinnati II
Preview
22:00
New England II
New England II
7/26/2026MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Group StageNKU Soccer Stadium
Big match
43%
FC Cincinnati II
model favours
43%23%34%

New England II score first in only 23% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
66%
over 2.5 goals
67%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

FC Cincinnati II43%
×Draw23%
New England II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Cincinnati II
1.82
New England II
1.60

FC Cincinnati II creates 14% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 47 away

creates per match

FC Cincinnati II
1.53
New England II
1.53

allows per match

FC Cincinnati II
1.67
New England II
2.11

finishing

FC Cincinnati II+0.00on par
New England II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Cincinnati II ↓

New England II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

FC Cincinnati II or draw
66%
FC Cincinnati II or New England II
77%
Draw or New England II
57%

Winning margin

FC Cincinnati II wins by 2+
23%
New England II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

FC Cincinnati II 1+ goals
84%
FC Cincinnati II 2+ goals
54%
FC Cincinnati II 3+ goals
27%
New England II 1+ goals
80%
New England II 2+ goals
47%
New England II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

FC Cincinnati II (draw refunded)
56%
New England II (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Cincinnati II at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.67 · 55 matches

New England II away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.11 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Cincinnati II attack 1.53 + New England II defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.82

New England II attack 1.53 + FC Cincinnati II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FC Cincinnati II scores more
43%
level
23%
New England II scores more
34%

FC Cincinnati II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FC Cincinnati II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • FC Cincinnati II score first in only 25% of matches
  • Both teams score in 85% of New England II’s matches
  • 77% of New England II’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • 53% of FC Cincinnati II’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (63% and 77% over 2.5)
  • 39% of New England II’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
II
LLDWL
II
WDLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Cincinnati II face New England II (MLS Next Pro)

MLS Next Pro returns with FC Cincinnati II hosting New England II. Match starts July 26, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

FC Cincinnati II host New England II at NKU Soccer Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.