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FC Chiasso vs Young Boys II — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

FC Chiasso
FC Chiasso
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Young Boys II
Young Boys II
O. Correia 19'
N. Maier 63'
Y. Toure 11'
12/5/20211. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 18Stadio Comunale di Chiasso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

FC Chiasso54%
×Draw23%
Young Boys II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Chiasso
1.85
Young Boys II
1.14

FC Chiasso creates 62% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 85 away

creates per match

FC Chiasso
1.74
Young Boys II
1.35

allows per match

FC Chiasso
0.93
Young Boys II
1.96

finishing

FC Chiasso+0.00on par
Young Boys II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Chiasso ↓

Young Boys II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

FC Chiasso or draw
77%
FC Chiasso or Young Boys II
77%
Draw or Young Boys II
46%

Winning margin

FC Chiasso wins by 2+
31%
Young Boys II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

FC Chiasso 1+ goals
84%
FC Chiasso 2+ goals
55%
FC Chiasso 3+ goals
28%
Young Boys II 1+ goals
68%
Young Boys II 2+ goals
32%
Young Boys II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

FC Chiasso (draw refunded)
70%
Young Boys II (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Chiasso at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.93 · 27 matches

Young Boys II away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.96 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Chiasso attack 1.74 + Young Boys II defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.85

Young Boys II attack 1.35 + FC Chiasso defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

FC Chiasso scores more
54%
level
23%
Young Boys II scores more
23%

FC Chiasso at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FC Chiasso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
Y. Toure
19'
O. Correia
63'
N. Maier

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Chiasso vs Young Boys II

Young Boys II beat FC Chiasso 2-1 in 1. Liga Promotion on December 5, 2021.

Goals: Y. Toure (11'), O. Correia (19'), N. Maier (63').

The match was played at Stadio Comunale di Chiasso in Chiasso.