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FC Chiasso vs Sion II — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

FC Chiasso
FC Chiasso
FT
1 – 2
Sion II
Sion II
C. Manicone 88'
L. Delley 73'
J. Khasa 6'
9/29/20211. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 7Stadio Comunale di Chiasso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

FC Chiasso55%
×Draw22%
Sion II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Chiasso
1.94
Sion II
1.17

FC Chiasso creates 66% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 39 away

creates per match

FC Chiasso
1.74
Sion II
1.41

allows per match

FC Chiasso
0.93
Sion II
2.15

finishing

FC Chiasso+0.00on par
Sion II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Chiasso ↓

Sion II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

FC Chiasso or draw
77%
FC Chiasso or Sion II
78%
Draw or Sion II
45%

Winning margin

FC Chiasso wins by 2+
32%
Sion II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

FC Chiasso 1+ goals
86%
FC Chiasso 2+ goals
58%
FC Chiasso 3+ goals
30%
Sion II 1+ goals
69%
Sion II 2+ goals
33%
Sion II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

FC Chiasso (draw refunded)
71%
Sion II (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Chiasso at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.93 · 27 matches

Sion II away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.15 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Chiasso attack 1.74 + Sion II defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.94

Sion II attack 1.41 + FC Chiasso defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

FC Chiasso scores more
55%
level
22%
Sion II scores more
23%

FC Chiasso at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "FC Chiasso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
J. Khasa
73'
L. Delley
88'
C. Manicone

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Promotion: FC Chiasso 1–2 Sion II

Sion II beat FC Chiasso 2-1 in 1. Liga Promotion on September 29, 2021.

Goals: J. Khasa (6'), L. Delley (73'), C. Manicone (88').

The match was played at Stadio Comunale di Chiasso in Chiasso.