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FC Chiasso vs FC Zurich — League #208 2026

FC Chiasso
FC Chiasso
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
FC Zurich
FC Zurich
4/30/2017League #208League #208 · Round 30Stadio Comunale di Chiasso (Chiasso)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

FC Chiasso12%
×Draw19%
FC Zurich69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Chiasso
0.75
FC Zurich
2.13

FC Zurich creates 184% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 3 away

creates per match

FC Chiasso
1.17
FC Zurich
2.67

allows per match

FC Chiasso
1.58
FC Zurich
0.33

finishing

FC Chiasso+0.00on par
FC Zurich+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Chiasso ↓

FC Zurich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–112%
0–213%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

FC Chiasso or draw
31%
FC Chiasso or FC Zurich
81%
Draw or FC Zurich
88%

Winning margin

FC Chiasso wins by 2+
3%
FC Zurich wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

FC Chiasso 1+ goals
53%
FC Chiasso 2+ goals
17%
FC Chiasso 3+ goals
4%
FC Zurich 1+ goals
88%
FC Zurich 2+ goals
63%
FC Zurich 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

FC Chiasso (draw refunded)
15%
FC Zurich (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Chiasso at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

FC Zurich away — creates 2.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Chiasso attack 1.17 + FC Zurich defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.75

FC Zurich attack 2.67 + FC Chiasso defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

FC Chiasso scores more
12%
level
19%
FC Zurich scores more
69%

FC Zurich at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "FC Zurich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #208: FC Chiasso 1–2 FC Zurich

FC Zurich beat FC Chiasso 2-1 in League #208 on April 30, 2017.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale di Chiasso (Chiasso).