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FC Chiasso vs Brühl — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

FC Chiasso
FC Chiasso
FT
1 – 1
Brühl
Brühl
P. Teixeira 26'
L. Shala 88'
10/16/20211. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 11Stadio Comunale di Chiasso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

FC Chiasso51%
×Draw23%
Brühl26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Chiasso
1.84
Brühl
1.26

FC Chiasso creates 46% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 105 away

creates per match

FC Chiasso
1.74
Brühl
1.59

allows per match

FC Chiasso
0.93
Brühl
1.95

finishing

FC Chiasso+0.00on par
Brühl+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Chiasso ↓

Brühl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

FC Chiasso or draw
74%
FC Chiasso or Brühl
77%
Draw or Brühl
49%

Winning margin

FC Chiasso wins by 2+
28%
Brühl wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FC Chiasso 1+ goals
84%
FC Chiasso 2+ goals
55%
FC Chiasso 3+ goals
28%
Brühl 1+ goals
72%
Brühl 2+ goals
36%
Brühl 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

FC Chiasso (draw refunded)
66%
Brühl (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Chiasso at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.93 · 27 matches

Brühl away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.95 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Chiasso attack 1.74 + Brühl defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.84

Brühl attack 1.59 + FC Chiasso defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FC Chiasso scores more
51%
level
23%
Brühl scores more
26%

FC Chiasso at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FC Chiasso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
P. Teixeira
88'
L. Shala

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Chiasso vs Brühl

FC Chiasso and Brühl drew 1-1 in 1. Liga Promotion on October 16, 2021.

Goals: P. Teixeira (26'), L. Shala (88').

The match was played at Stadio Comunale di Chiasso in Chiasso.