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FC Chiasso vs Black Stars — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

FC Chiasso
FC Chiasso
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Black Stars
Black Stars
G. Levante 19' (OG)
R. Farinha 3' (OG)
4/23/20221. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 29Stadio Comunale di Chiasso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

FC Chiasso48%
×Draw26%
Black Stars27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Chiasso
1.53
Black Stars
1.08

FC Chiasso creates 42% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 37 away

creates per match

FC Chiasso
1.74
Black Stars
1.24

allows per match

FC Chiasso
0.93
Black Stars
1.32

finishing

FC Chiasso+0.00on par
Black Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Chiasso ↓

Black Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

FC Chiasso or draw
73%
FC Chiasso or Black Stars
74%
Draw or Black Stars
52%

Winning margin

FC Chiasso wins by 2+
24%
Black Stars wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FC Chiasso 1+ goals
78%
FC Chiasso 2+ goals
45%
FC Chiasso 3+ goals
20%
Black Stars 1+ goals
66%
Black Stars 2+ goals
29%
Black Stars 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

FC Chiasso (draw refunded)
64%
Black Stars (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Chiasso at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.93 · 27 matches

Black Stars away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.32 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Chiasso attack 1.74 + Black Stars defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.53

Black Stars attack 1.24 + FC Chiasso defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FC Chiasso scores more
48%
level
26%
Black Stars scores more
27%

FC Chiasso at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FC Chiasso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
R. FarinhaOwn goal
19'
G. LevanteOwn goal
80'
A. Edwige

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Promotion: FC Chiasso 2–0 Black Stars

FC Chiasso beat Black Stars 2-0 in 1. Liga Promotion on April 23, 2022.

Goals: R. Farinha (3' o.g.), G. Levante (19' o.g.).

The match was played at Stadio Comunale di Chiasso in Chiasso.