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FC Chiasso vs Bellinzona — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

FC Chiasso
FC Chiasso
FT
2 – 1
Bellinzona
Bellinzona
8/18/20211. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 2Stadio Comunale di Chiasso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

FC Chiasso42%
×Draw24%
Bellinzona33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Chiasso
1.60
Bellinzona
1.39

FC Chiasso creates 15% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 39 away

creates per match

FC Chiasso
1.74
Bellinzona
1.85

allows per match

FC Chiasso
0.93
Bellinzona
1.46

finishing

FC Chiasso+0.00on par
Bellinzona+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Chiasso ↓

Bellinzona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

FC Chiasso or draw
67%
FC Chiasso or Bellinzona
76%
Draw or Bellinzona
58%

Winning margin

FC Chiasso wins by 2+
21%
Bellinzona wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

FC Chiasso 1+ goals
80%
FC Chiasso 2+ goals
47%
FC Chiasso 3+ goals
22%
Bellinzona 1+ goals
75%
Bellinzona 2+ goals
40%
Bellinzona 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

FC Chiasso (draw refunded)
56%
Bellinzona (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Chiasso at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.93 · 27 matches

Bellinzona away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.46 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Chiasso attack 1.74 + Bellinzona defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.60

Bellinzona attack 1.85 + FC Chiasso defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC Chiasso scores more
42%
level
24%
Bellinzona scores more
33%

FC Chiasso at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC Chiasso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Chiasso vs Bellinzona

FC Chiasso beat Bellinzona 2-1 in 1. Liga Promotion on August 18, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale di Chiasso in Chiasso.