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FC Chiasso vs Bavois — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

FC Chiasso
FC Chiasso
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Bavois
Bavois
L. Tabi 64'
M. Zeneli 12'
11/5/20221. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 15Stadio Comunale di Chiasso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

FC Chiasso50%
×Draw24%
Bavois26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Chiasso
1.75
Bavois
1.19

FC Chiasso creates 47% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 105 away

creates per match

FC Chiasso
1.74
Bavois
1.44

allows per match

FC Chiasso
0.93
Bavois
1.75

finishing

FC Chiasso+0.00on par
Bavois+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Chiasso ↓

Bavois →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

FC Chiasso or draw
74%
FC Chiasso or Bavois
76%
Draw or Bavois
50%

Winning margin

FC Chiasso wins by 2+
27%
Bavois wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FC Chiasso 1+ goals
83%
FC Chiasso 2+ goals
52%
FC Chiasso 3+ goals
25%
Bavois 1+ goals
70%
Bavois 2+ goals
33%
Bavois 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

FC Chiasso (draw refunded)
66%
Bavois (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Chiasso at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.93 · 27 matches

Bavois away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.75 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Chiasso attack 1.74 + Bavois defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.75

Bavois attack 1.44 + FC Chiasso defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FC Chiasso scores more
50%
level
24%
Bavois scores more
26%

FC Chiasso at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FC Chiasso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
A. Alvarez
12'
M. Zeneli
24'
D. Kadima
39'
D. Misic
47'
N. Mbengi← N. Mbengi
52'
D. Bezziccheri
53'
T. Rochat
56'
C. Spadoni← C. Spadoni
64'
L. Tabi
64'
D. Bezziccheri← F. Gentile
70'
N. Kurtic← N. Kurtic
71'
D. Misic← D. Qela
76'
M. Talovic← M. Talovic
76'
H. Haddad← H. Haddad
77'
M. Begzadic← M. Begzadic
86'
T. Diallo← T. Diallo
87'
F. Gentile
88'
M. Begzadic
90+1'
M. Martorana

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Chiasso vs Bavois

Bavois beat FC Chiasso 2-0 in 1. Liga Promotion on November 5, 2022.

Goals: M. Zeneli (12'), L. Tabi (64').

The match was played at Stadio Comunale di Chiasso in Chiasso.