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FC Chiasso vs Basel II — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

FC Chiasso
FC Chiasso
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Basel II
Basel II
F. M. Evans 14'
R. Nivokazi 6'
3/6/20221. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 21Stadio Comunale di Chiasso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

FC Chiasso48%
×Draw23%
Basel II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Chiasso
1.75
Basel II
1.31

FC Chiasso creates 34% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 106 away

creates per match

FC Chiasso
1.74
Basel II
1.70

allows per match

FC Chiasso
0.93
Basel II
1.75

finishing

FC Chiasso+0.00on par
Basel II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Chiasso ↓

Basel II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

FC Chiasso or draw
71%
FC Chiasso or Basel II
77%
Draw or Basel II
52%

Winning margin

FC Chiasso wins by 2+
26%
Basel II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC Chiasso 1+ goals
83%
FC Chiasso 2+ goals
52%
FC Chiasso 3+ goals
25%
Basel II 1+ goals
73%
Basel II 2+ goals
38%
Basel II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FC Chiasso (draw refunded)
62%
Basel II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Chiasso at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.93 · 27 matches

Basel II away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.75 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Chiasso attack 1.74 + Basel II defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.75

Basel II attack 1.70 + FC Chiasso defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FC Chiasso scores more
48%
level
23%
Basel II scores more
29%

FC Chiasso at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FC Chiasso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
R. Nivokazi
14'
F. M. Evans

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Promotion: FC Chiasso 2–0 Basel II

FC Chiasso beat Basel II 2-0 in 1. Liga Promotion on March 6, 2022.

Goals: R. Nivokazi (6'), F. M. Evans (14').

The match was played at Stadio Comunale di Chiasso in Chiasso.