FC Cartagena 1–0 Sporting Gijon: Result & Stats

FC Cartagena

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sporting Gijon

12/9/2024

Segunda División · Round 18Estadio Municipal Cartagonova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

FC Cartagena39%

×Draw29%

Sporting Gijon32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC CartagenaExpected goals in this matchSporting Gijon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.03

FC Cartagena

1.16

Sporting Gijon

1.03

FC Cartagena creates 13% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 169 away

1.18

creates per match

0.90

1.16

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

FC Cartagena

1.18

Sporting Gijon

0.90

allows per match

FC Cartagena

1.16

Sporting Gijon

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Cartagena+0.00on par

Sporting Gijon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Cartagena ↓

Sporting Gijon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

FC Cartagena or draw

68%

FC Cartagena or Sporting Gijon

71%

Draw or Sporting Gijon

61%

Winning margin

FC Cartagena wins by 2+

16%

Sporting Gijon wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

FC Cartagena 1+ goals

69%

FC Cartagena 2+ goals

32%

FC Cartagena 3+ goals

11%

Sporting Gijon 1+ goals

64%

Sporting Gijon 2+ goals

28%

Sporting Gijon 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

FC Cartagena (draw refunded)

55%

Sporting Gijon (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Cartagena at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.16 · 105 matches

Sporting Gijon away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.14 · 169 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Cartagena attack 1.18 + Sporting Gijon defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.16

Sporting Gijon attack 0.90 + FC Cartagena defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC Cartagena scores more

39%

level

29%

Sporting Gijon scores more

32%

FC Cartagena at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FC Cartagena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff