FC Cartagena 1–2 Sabadell: Result & Stats

FC Cartagena

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Sabadell

Rubén Castro 63'

Carlos Moreno 83' (OG)

Gorka Guruzeta 78'

12/13/2020

Segunda División · Round 18Estadio Municipal Cartagonova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

FC Cartagena40%

×Draw28%

Sabadell31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC CartagenaExpected goals in this matchSabadell

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.05

FC Cartagena

1.23

Sabadell

1.05

FC Cartagena creates 17% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 21 away

1.18

creates per match

0.95

1.16

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

FC Cartagena

1.18

Sabadell

0.95

allows per match

FC Cartagena

1.16

Sabadell

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Cartagena+0.00on par

Sabadell+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Cartagena ↓

Sabadell →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

FC Cartagena or draw

69%

FC Cartagena or Sabadell

72%

Draw or Sabadell

60%

Winning margin

FC Cartagena wins by 2+

18%

Sabadell wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

FC Cartagena 1+ goals

71%

FC Cartagena 2+ goals

35%

FC Cartagena 3+ goals

13%

Sabadell 1+ goals

65%

Sabadell 2+ goals

28%

Sabadell 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

FC Cartagena (draw refunded)

56%

Sabadell (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Cartagena at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.16 · 105 matches

Sabadell away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.29 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Cartagena attack 1.18 + Sabadell defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Sabadell attack 0.95 + FC Cartagena defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC Cartagena scores more

40%

level

28%

Sabadell scores more

31%

FC Cartagena at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC Cartagena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Álex Gallar

FC Cartagena · M

8.0

Match Events

35'

37'

41'

52'

63'

Rubén Castro↳ Álex Gallar

64'

Gorka Guruzeta← Edgar Hernández

64'

Juan Hernández← Aarón Rey

67'

Juan Hernández García

72'

Óscar Rubio← Grego Sierra

72'

Stoichkov← Víctor García

72'

Héber Pena← Néstor Querol

76'

Sergio Aguza← Nacho Gil

78'

Gorka Guruzeta↳ Héber Pena

79'

Sergio Aguza

82'

Pablo Clavería

83'

Carlos MorenoOwn goal

85'

A. Carrasquilla← Clavería

85'

J. Harper← José Jurado

87'

Eladio Zorrilla Jiménez

89'

William de Camargo← David Simón

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCSabadell

Overview

46%Possession54%

10Total Shots12

1Corners5

13Fouls16

Shots

10Total Shots12

3On Target2

7Off Target7

0Blocked3

8Inside Box8

2Outside Box4

Passing

46%Possession54%

379Total Passes422

271Accurate Passes342

72%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls16

3Yellow Cards5

3Offsides3

Match Recap: FC Cartagena vs Sabadell

Sabadell beat FC Cartagena 2-1 in Segunda División on December 13, 2020.

Goals: Rubén Castro (63'), Gorka Guruzeta (78'), Carlos Moreno (83' o.g.).

Sabadell controlled possession (54%) and registered 12 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Cartagonova in Cartagena.

FC Cartagena vs Sabadell — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: FC Cartagena vs Sabadell