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FC Cartagena vs Racing Santander — Segunda División 2018

FC Cartagena
FC Cartagena
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Racing Santander
Racing Santander
10/14/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 11Estadio Municipal Cartagonova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

FC Cartagena40%
×Draw27%
Racing Santander33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Cartagena
1.30
Racing Santander
1.16

FC Cartagena creates 12% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 106 away

creates per match

FC Cartagena
1.18
Racing Santander
1.16

allows per match

FC Cartagena
1.16
Racing Santander
1.43

finishing

FC Cartagena+0.00on par
Racing Santander+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Cartagena ↓

Racing Santander →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FC Cartagena or draw
67%
FC Cartagena or Racing Santander
73%
Draw or Racing Santander
60%

Winning margin

FC Cartagena wins by 2+
18%
Racing Santander wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

FC Cartagena 1+ goals
73%
FC Cartagena 2+ goals
37%
FC Cartagena 3+ goals
14%
Racing Santander 1+ goals
69%
Racing Santander 2+ goals
32%
Racing Santander 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

FC Cartagena (draw refunded)
55%
Racing Santander (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Cartagena at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.16 · 105 matches

Racing Santander away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.43 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Cartagena attack 1.18 + Racing Santander defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.30

Racing Santander attack 1.16 + FC Cartagena defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC Cartagena scores more
40%
level
27%
Racing Santander scores more
33%

FC Cartagena at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC Cartagena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: FC Cartagena 2–3 Racing Santander

Racing Santander beat FC Cartagena 3-2 in Segunda División on October 14, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Cartagonova in Cartagena.