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FC Cartagena vs Oviedo — Segunda División 2018

FC Cartagena
FC Cartagena
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Oviedo
Oviedo
2/17/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 28Estadio Municipal Cartagonova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

FC Cartagena39%
×Draw29%
Oviedo33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Cartagena
1.17
Oviedo
1.05

FC Cartagena creates 11% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 151 away

creates per match

FC Cartagena
1.18
Oviedo
0.95

allows per match

FC Cartagena
1.16
Oviedo
1.17

finishing

FC Cartagena+0.00on par
Oviedo+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Cartagena ↓

Oviedo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

FC Cartagena or draw
67%
FC Cartagena or Oviedo
71%
Draw or Oviedo
61%

Winning margin

FC Cartagena wins by 2+
16%
Oviedo wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FC Cartagena 1+ goals
69%
FC Cartagena 2+ goals
33%
FC Cartagena 3+ goals
11%
Oviedo 1+ goals
65%
Oviedo 2+ goals
28%
Oviedo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FC Cartagena (draw refunded)
54%
Oviedo (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Cartagena at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.16 · 105 matches

Oviedo away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.17 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Cartagena attack 1.18 + Oviedo defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.17

Oviedo attack 0.95 + FC Cartagena defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC Cartagena scores more
39%
level
29%
Oviedo scores more
33%

FC Cartagena at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FC Cartagena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: FC Cartagena 2–1 Oviedo

FC Cartagena beat Oviedo 2-1 in Segunda División on February 17, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Cartagonova in Cartagena.