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FC Cartagena vs Mallorca — Segunda División 2018

FC Cartagena
FC Cartagena
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Mallorca
Mallorca
Elady Zorrilla 90'
L. Junior 81' (pen)
Dani Rodríguez 69' (pen)
11/25/2020Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 14Estadio Municipal Cartagonova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

FC Cartagena35%
×Draw30%
Mallorca35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Cartagena
1.04
Mallorca
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 105 home / 45 away

creates per match

FC Cartagena
1.18
Mallorca
0.93

allows per match

FC Cartagena
1.16
Mallorca
0.91

finishing

FC Cartagena+0.00on par
Mallorca+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Cartagena ↓

Mallorca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

FC Cartagena or draw
65%
FC Cartagena or Mallorca
70%
Draw or Mallorca
65%

Winning margin

FC Cartagena wins by 2+
14%
Mallorca wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

FC Cartagena 1+ goals
65%
FC Cartagena 2+ goals
28%
FC Cartagena 3+ goals
9%
Mallorca 1+ goals
65%
Mallorca 2+ goals
28%
Mallorca 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FC Cartagena (draw refunded)
50%
Mallorca (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Cartagena at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.16 · 105 matches

Mallorca away — creates 0.93, concedes 0.91 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Cartagena attack 1.18 + Mallorca defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.04

Mallorca attack 0.93 + FC Cartagena defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

FC Cartagena scores more
35%
level
30%
Mallorca scores more
35%

FC Cartagena at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "FC Cartagena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
Nacho GilFC CartagenaFC Cartagena · M
7.9

Match Events

12'
Iddrisu Baba
13'
José Ángel Jurado de la Torre
55'
Álex Gallar← Berto Cayarga
55'
Clavería← José Jurado
60'
Ruiz de Galarreta← I. Mohammed
68'
Joan SastreGoal cancelled
69'
Dani RodríguezPenalty
70'
Jordi Mboula← Murilo
71'
Carlos David
73'
J. Harper← Nacho Gil
75'
Jack Harper
78'
Carlos David
81'
L. JuniorPenalty
82'
A. Sedlar← L. Junior
82'
Antonio Sánchez← Álex Alegría
82'
A. Ndiaye← Dani Rodríguez
83'
Jean-Pierre Rhyner
85'
Sergio Aguza← A. Carrasquilla
85'
Álex Martín← Rubén Castro
90'
Álex Gallar
90'
Manolo Reina
90'
Elady Zorrilla↳ David Simón

Possession

40%FC

Shots

7FC

Pass accuracy

46%FC

Statistics

FCMallorca
Overview
40%Possession60%
7Total Shots14
3Corners6
20Fouls15
Shots
7Total Shots14
3On Target4
4Off Target3
0Blocked7
4Inside Box9
3Outside Box5
Passing
40%Possession60%
292Total Passes423
210Accurate Passes363
72%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
20Fouls15
5Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
0Offsides3

Segunda División: FC Cartagena 1–2 Mallorca

Mallorca beat FC Cartagena 2-1 in Segunda División on November 25, 2020.

Goals: Dani Rodríguez (69' pen), L. Junior (81' pen), Elady Zorrilla (90').

Mallorca controlled possession (60%) and registered 14 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Cartagonova in Cartagena.