FC Cartagena 1–0 Elche: Result & Stats

FC Cartagena

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Elche

Alfredo Ortuño 45+5'

7/22/2023

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Ciudad Deportiva del Granada CF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

FC Cartagena51%

×Draw29%

Elche20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC CartagenaExpected goals in this matchElche

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.68

FC Cartagena

1.30

Elche

0.68

FC Cartagena creates 91% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

1.60

creates per match

0.75

0.60

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

FC Cartagena

1.60

Elche

0.75

allows per match

FC Cartagena

0.60

Elche

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Cartagena+0.00on par

Elche+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Cartagena ↓

Elche →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

FC Cartagena or draw

80%

FC Cartagena or Elche

71%

Draw or Elche

49%

Winning margin

FC Cartagena wins by 2+

24%

Elche wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

FC Cartagena 1+ goals

73%

FC Cartagena 2+ goals

37%

FC Cartagena 3+ goals

14%

Elche 1+ goals

49%

Elche 2+ goals

15%

Elche 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

FC Cartagena (draw refunded)

73%

Elche (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Cartagena at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Elche away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Cartagena attack 1.60 + Elche defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.30

Elche attack 0.75 + FC Cartagena defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FC Cartagena scores more

51%

level

29%

Elche scores more

20%

FC Cartagena at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FC Cartagena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+5'

Alfredo Ortuño

46'

Pedro Alcalá← Damián Musto

46'

Mikel Rico← Djakaria Barro

46'

Jonathan Carmona← David Ferreiro

46'

Gonzalo Verdú← Gonzalo Verdú

60'

Lautaro De León← Alfredo Ortuño

60'

Toni Datković← Toni Datković

60'

Adrian Sanmartin← Ivan Calero

60'

Kiko Olivas← Hector Hevel

60'

Arnau Solà← Jairo Izquierdo

Statistics

FCElche

Overview

3Corners3