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FC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso — Primera División 2026

FC Cajamarca
FC Cajamarca
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Garcilaso
Deportivo Garcilaso
H. Barcos 50'
A. Salazar 90'
2/9/2026Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

FC Cajamarca44%
×Draw24%
Deportivo Garcilaso32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Cajamarca
1.66
Deportivo Garcilaso
1.39

FC Cajamarca creates 19% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 61 away

creates per match

FC Cajamarca
2.00
Deportivo Garcilaso
1.11

allows per match

FC Cajamarca
1.67
Deportivo Garcilaso
1.31

finishing

FC Cajamarca+0.00on par
Deportivo Garcilaso+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Cajamarca ↓

Deportivo Garcilaso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

FC Cajamarca or draw
68%
FC Cajamarca or Deportivo Garcilaso
76%
Draw or Deportivo Garcilaso
56%

Winning margin

FC Cajamarca wins by 2+
23%
Deportivo Garcilaso wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

FC Cajamarca 1+ goals
81%
FC Cajamarca 2+ goals
49%
FC Cajamarca 3+ goals
23%
Deportivo Garcilaso 1+ goals
75%
Deportivo Garcilaso 2+ goals
40%
Deportivo Garcilaso 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

FC Cajamarca (draw refunded)
58%
Deportivo Garcilaso (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Cajamarca at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

Deportivo Garcilaso away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.31 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Cajamarca attack 2.00 + Deportivo Garcilaso defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.66

Deportivo Garcilaso attack 1.11 + FC Cajamarca defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FC Cajamarca scores more
44%
level
24%
Deportivo Garcilaso scores more
32%

FC Cajamarca at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC Cajamarca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
H. BarcosFC CajamarcaFC Cajamarca · F
7.7

Match Events

19'
Orlando Nuñez
38'
Ricardo Lagos
46'
B. Da Silva← J. Sinisterra
49'
Arley Rodríguez
50'
H. Barcos
57'
Keyvin Paico
59'
H. Timana← K. Paico
69'
A. Ascues← F. Arancibia
69'
K. Sandoval← C. I. Ramos Rodriguez
74'
M. Arrasco← P. Lavandeira Hernandez
76'
Tomás Andrade
83'
A. Salazar← E. Canales
87'
B. Palacios← J. Betancourt
88'
Hernán Barcos
90+6'
Carlos Mosquera
90'
Mauricio Arrasco
90+1'
Agustín González
90+8'
J. Portales← A. Graneros
90'
A. Salazar

Possession

42%FC

Shots

6FC

Pass accuracy

47%FC

Statistics

FCDeportivo
Overview
42%Possession58%
6Total Shots16
3Corners6
23Fouls9
Shots
6Total Shots16
2On Target6
3Off Target9
1Blocked1
5Inside Box7
1Outside Box9
Passing
42%Possession58%
291Total Passes396
214Accurate Passes331
74%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
5Saves1
Discipline
23Fouls9
7Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

Match Recap: FC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso

FC Cajamarca and Deportivo Garcilaso drew 1-1 in Primera División on February 9, 2026.

Goals: H. Barcos (50'), A. Salazar (90').

Deportivo Garcilaso controlled possession (58%) and registered 16 shots to 6.