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FC Cajamarca vs Comerciantes Unidos — Primera División 2026

FC Cajamarca
FC Cajamarca
FT
3 – 4
HT: 2 – 0
Comerciantes Unidos
Comerciantes Unidos
H. Barcos 85'
A. Rodriguez 32'
B. Palacios 19'
J. Rodriguez 79'
J. Parodi 74'
W. Ayovi 70'
E. M. Perez Azambuya 54' (pen)
3/13/2026Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

FC Cajamarca54%
×Draw22%
Comerciantes Unidos24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Cajamarca
2.01
Comerciantes Unidos
1.28

FC Cajamarca creates 57% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 62 away

creates per match

FC Cajamarca
2.00
Comerciantes Unidos
0.89

allows per match

FC Cajamarca
1.67
Comerciantes Unidos
2.02

finishing

FC Cajamarca+0.00on par
Comerciantes Unidos+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Cajamarca ↓

Comerciantes Unidos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

FC Cajamarca or draw
76%
FC Cajamarca or Comerciantes Unidos
78%
Draw or Comerciantes Unidos
46%

Winning margin

FC Cajamarca wins by 2+
32%
Comerciantes Unidos wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FC Cajamarca 1+ goals
87%
FC Cajamarca 2+ goals
59%
FC Cajamarca 3+ goals
32%
Comerciantes Unidos 1+ goals
72%
Comerciantes Unidos 2+ goals
37%
Comerciantes Unidos 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FC Cajamarca (draw refunded)
69%
Comerciantes Unidos (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Cajamarca at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

Comerciantes Unidos away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.02 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Cajamarca attack 2.00 + Comerciantes Unidos defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.01

Comerciantes Unidos attack 0.89 + FC Cajamarca defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

FC Cajamarca scores more
54%
level
22%
Comerciantes Unidos scores more
24%

FC Cajamarca at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FC Cajamarca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25
R. VilcaComerciantes UnidosComerciantes Unidos · M
8.3

Match Events

4'
Flavio Alcedo
10'
Jose Anthony Gallardo
19'
B. Palacios↳ H. Barcos
32'
A. Rodriguez↳ R. Lagos
34'
Josuee Herrera
37'
C. Gomez← J. Gallardo
46'
M. Carranza← J. Herrera
46'
W. Ayovi← J. Olivares
51'
Arley Rodríguez
51'
Maximiliano PerezGoal confirmed
54'
E. M. Perez AzambuyaPenalty
55'
J. G. Orejuela← M. Arrasco
62'
Jefferson Gabriel Orejuela Izquierdo
65'
T. Salinas← A. Rodriguez
70'
W. Ayovi↳ R. Vilca
72'
J. Parodi← F. Alcedo
73'
J. Betancourt← A. Rodriguez
74'
C. Meza← B. Palacios
74'
J. Parodi↳ R. Vilca
79'
J. Rodriguez↳ R. Vilca
85'
H. Barcos↳ T. Andrade
90+4'
Maximiliano Perez
90+1'
Alexis Cossio
90+1'
Alexis Arias
90+5'
Y. Vilchez←

Possession

47%FC

Shots

11FC

Pass accuracy

51%FC

Statistics

FCComerciantes
Overview
47%Possession53%
11Total Shots14
1.12Expected Goals (xG)2.37
3Corners6
11Fouls10
Shots
11Total Shots14
5On Target7
4Off Target5
2Blocked2
6Inside Box10
5Outside Box4
Passing
47%Possession53%
273Total Passes315
199Accurate Passes225
73%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls10
2Yellow Cards5
1Red Cards0
0Offsides2

Match Recap: FC Cajamarca vs Comerciantes Unidos

Comerciantes Unidos beat FC Cajamarca 4-3 in Primera División on March 13, 2026.

Goals: B. Palacios (19'), A. Rodriguez (32'), E. M. Perez Azambuya (54' pen), W. Ayovi (70'), J. Parodi (74'), J. Rodriguez (79'), H. Barcos (85').

Comerciantes Unidos controlled possession (53%) and registered 14 shots to 11.