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FC Cajamarca vs ADT — Primera División 2026

FC Cajamarca
FC Cajamarca
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
ADT
ADT
J. Narvaez 62' (OG)
C. Meza 46'
J. Rojas 90'
V. Cedron 80' (pen)
4/18/2026Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 11Estadio Heroes de San Ramon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

FC Cajamarca49%
×Draw23%
ADT28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Cajamarca
1.81
ADT
1.32

FC Cajamarca creates 37% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 78 away

creates per match

FC Cajamarca
2.00
ADT
0.97

allows per match

FC Cajamarca
1.67
ADT
1.62

finishing

FC Cajamarca+0.00on par
ADT+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Cajamarca ↓

ADT →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

FC Cajamarca or draw
72%
FC Cajamarca or ADT
77%
Draw or ADT
51%

Winning margin

FC Cajamarca wins by 2+
27%
ADT wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC Cajamarca 1+ goals
84%
FC Cajamarca 2+ goals
54%
FC Cajamarca 3+ goals
27%
ADT 1+ goals
73%
ADT 2+ goals
38%
ADT 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

FC Cajamarca (draw refunded)
64%
ADT (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Cajamarca at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

ADT away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.62 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Cajamarca attack 2.00 + ADT defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.81

ADT attack 0.97 + FC Cajamarca defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FC Cajamarca scores more
49%
level
23%
ADT scores more
28%

FC Cajamarca at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FC Cajamarca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
M. ArrascoFC CajamarcaFC Cajamarca · M
7.5

Match Events

29'
Ronny Biojo
46'
H. Barcos← S. Peralta
46'
S. Enciso← B. Palacios
46'
C. Meza↳ S. Enciso
56'
A. Cubas← A. Mazzo
56'
J. Alvino← L. Perez
56'
N. Rengifo← L. Gomez
62'
J. NarvaezOwn goal
65'
Mauricio Arrasco
71'
Anthony Cubas
72'
E. Paucar← M. Arrasco
72'
J. Betancourt← P. Lavandeira Hernandez
72'
A. Gutierrez← J. Guivin Tanta
77'
John NarvaezPenalty confirmed
80'
V. CedronPenalty
81'
P. Miguez← C. Meza
90'
J. Rojas↳ C. Cabello

Possession

37%FC

Shots

9FC

Pass accuracy

47%FC

Statistics

FCADT
Overview
37%Possession63%
9Total Shots14
1.12Expected Goals (xG)1.35
3Corners5
12Fouls7
Shots
9Total Shots14
2On Target9
5Off Target4
2Blocked1
3Inside Box5
6Outside Box9
Passing
37%Possession63%
263Total Passes460
193Accurate Passes382
73%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
6Saves1
Discipline
12Fouls7
1Yellow Cards2
3Offsides3

Match Recap: FC Cajamarca vs ADT

FC Cajamarca and ADT drew 2-2 in Primera División on April 18, 2026.

Goals: C. Meza (46'), J. Narvaez (62' o.g.), V. Cedron (80' pen), J. Rojas (90').

ADT controlled possession (63%) and registered 14 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Heroes de San Ramon in Cajamarca.