FC BW Linz 0–1 TSV Hartberg: Result & Stats

FC BW Linz

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

TSV Hartberg

8/9/2025

Bundesliga · Round 2Hofmann Personal Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

FC BW Linz43%

×Draw24%

TSV Hartberg32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC BW LinzExpected goals in this matchTSV Hartberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.34

FC BW Linz

1.59

TSV Hartberg

1.34

FC BW Linz creates 19% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 131 away

1.42

creates per match

1.40

1.29

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

FC BW Linz

1.42

TSV Hartberg

1.40

allows per match

FC BW Linz

1.29

TSV Hartberg

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC BW Linz+0.00on par

TSV Hartberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC BW Linz ↓

TSV Hartberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

FC BW Linz or draw

68%

FC BW Linz or TSV Hartberg

76%

Draw or TSV Hartberg

57%

Winning margin

FC BW Linz wins by 2+

22%

TSV Hartberg wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

FC BW Linz 1+ goals

80%

FC BW Linz 2+ goals

47%

FC BW Linz 3+ goals

21%

TSV Hartberg 1+ goals

74%

TSV Hartberg 2+ goals

39%

TSV Hartberg 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

FC BW Linz (draw refunded)

57%

TSV Hartberg (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC BW Linz at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

TSV Hartberg away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.76 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC BW Linz attack 1.42 + TSV Hartberg defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.59

TSV Hartberg attack 1.40 + FC BW Linz defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FC BW Linz scores more

43%

level

24%

TSV Hartberg scores more

32%

FC BW Linz at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FC BW Linz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff