FC BW Linz 3–0 SCR Altach: Result & Stats

FC BW Linz

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

SCR Altach

4/24/2026

Bundesliga · Relegation Group - 29Hofmann Personal Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

FC BW Linz46%

×Draw26%

SCR Altach28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC BW LinzExpected goals in this matchSCR Altach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.13

FC BW Linz

1.51

SCR Altach

1.13

FC BW Linz creates 34% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 129 away

1.42

creates per match

0.96

1.29

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

FC BW Linz

1.42

SCR Altach

0.96

allows per match

FC BW Linz

1.29

SCR Altach

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC BW Linz+0.00on par

SCR Altach+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC BW Linz ↓

SCR Altach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

FC BW Linz or draw

72%

FC BW Linz or SCR Altach

74%

Draw or SCR Altach

54%

Winning margin

FC BW Linz wins by 2+

23%

SCR Altach wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

FC BW Linz 1+ goals

78%

FC BW Linz 2+ goals

44%

FC BW Linz 3+ goals

19%

SCR Altach 1+ goals

68%

SCR Altach 2+ goals

31%

SCR Altach 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

FC BW Linz (draw refunded)

62%

SCR Altach (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC BW Linz at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

SCR Altach away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.60 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC BW Linz attack 1.42 + SCR Altach defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.51

SCR Altach attack 0.96 + FC BW Linz defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FC BW Linz scores more

46%

level

26%

SCR Altach scores more

28%

FC BW Linz at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FC BW Linz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff