FC BW Linz 1–2 Red Bull Salzburg: Result & Stats

FC BW Linz

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Red Bull Salzburg

5/18/2025

Bundesliga · Championship Round - 9Hofmann Personal Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

FC BW Linz27%

×Draw24%

Red Bull Salzburg49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC BW LinzExpected goals in this matchRed Bull Salzburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.72

FC BW Linz

1.21

Red Bull Salzburg

1.72

Red Bull Salzburg creates 42% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 128 away

1.42

creates per match

2.15

1.29

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

FC BW Linz

1.42

Red Bull Salzburg

2.15

allows per match

FC BW Linz

1.29

Red Bull Salzburg

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC BW Linz+0.00on par

Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC BW Linz ↓

Red Bull Salzburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

FC BW Linz or draw

51%

FC BW Linz or Red Bull Salzburg

76%

Draw or Red Bull Salzburg

73%

Winning margin

FC BW Linz wins by 2+

11%

Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

FC BW Linz 1+ goals

70%

FC BW Linz 2+ goals

34%

FC BW Linz 3+ goals

12%

Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals

82%

Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals

51%

Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

FC BW Linz (draw refunded)

35%

Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC BW Linz at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

Red Bull Salzburg away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.01 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC BW Linz attack 1.42 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.21

Red Bull Salzburg attack 2.15 + FC BW Linz defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FC BW Linz scores more

27%

level

24%

Red Bull Salzburg scores more

49%

Red Bull Salzburg at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Red Bull Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff