FC BW Linz 1–2 Austria Vienna: Result & Stats

FC BW Linz

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Austria Vienna

3/3/2024

Bundesliga · Round 21Hofmann Personal Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

FC BW Linz39%

×Draw26%

Austria Vienna35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC BW LinzExpected goals in this matchAustria Vienna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.31

FC BW Linz

1.40

Austria Vienna

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 134 away

1.42

creates per match

1.34

1.29

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

FC BW Linz

1.42

Austria Vienna

1.34

allows per match

FC BW Linz

1.29

Austria Vienna

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC BW Linz+0.00on par

Austria Vienna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC BW Linz ↓

Austria Vienna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

FC BW Linz or draw

65%

FC BW Linz or Austria Vienna

74%

Draw or Austria Vienna

61%

Winning margin

FC BW Linz wins by 2+

18%

Austria Vienna wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

FC BW Linz 1+ goals

75%

FC BW Linz 2+ goals

41%

FC BW Linz 3+ goals

17%

Austria Vienna 1+ goals

73%

Austria Vienna 2+ goals

38%

Austria Vienna 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

FC BW Linz (draw refunded)

53%

Austria Vienna (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC BW Linz at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

Austria Vienna away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.37 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC BW Linz attack 1.42 + Austria Vienna defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.40

Austria Vienna attack 1.34 + FC BW Linz defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC BW Linz scores more

39%

level

26%

Austria Vienna scores more

35%

FC BW Linz at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FC BW Linz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff