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Austria Vienna vs FC BW Linz — Bundesliga 2018

Austria Vienna
Austria Vienna
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
FC BW Linz
FC BW Linz
5/24/2025BundesligaBundesliga · Championship Round - 10Generali Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Austria Vienna51%
×Draw25%
FC BW Linz24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austria Vienna
1.63
FC BW Linz
1.04

Austria Vienna creates 57% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 48 away

creates per match

Austria Vienna
1.58
FC BW Linz
0.81

allows per match

Austria Vienna
1.27
FC BW Linz
1.67

finishing

Austria Vienna+0.00on par
FC BW Linz+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria Vienna ↓

FC BW Linz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Austria Vienna or draw
76%
Austria Vienna or FC BW Linz
75%
Draw or FC BW Linz
49%

Winning margin

Austria Vienna wins by 2+
27%
FC BW Linz wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Austria Vienna 1+ goals
80%
Austria Vienna 2+ goals
48%
Austria Vienna 3+ goals
22%
FC BW Linz 1+ goals
65%
FC BW Linz 2+ goals
28%
FC BW Linz 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Austria Vienna (draw refunded)
68%
FC BW Linz (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria Vienna at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.27 · 133 matches

FC BW Linz away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.67 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria Vienna attack 1.58 + FC BW Linz defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.63

FC BW Linz attack 0.81 + Austria Vienna defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Austria Vienna scores more
51%
level
25%
FC BW Linz scores more
24%

Austria Vienna at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Austria Vienna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bundesliga: Austria Vienna 2–2 FC BW Linz

Austria Vienna and FC BW Linz drew 2-2 in Bundesliga on May 24, 2025.

The match was played at Generali Arena in Wien.