FC Botosani 1–2 Rapid: Result & Stats | Liga I

FC Botosani

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Rapid

3/1/2023

Liga I · Round 28Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

FC Botosani49%

×Draw25%

Rapid26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC BotosaniExpected goals in this matchRapid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.07

FC Botosani

1.59

Rapid

1.07

FC Botosani creates 49% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

1.99

creates per match

1.24

0.90

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

FC Botosani

1.99

Rapid

1.24

allows per match

FC Botosani

0.90

Rapid

1.19

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

+0.26scores more than expected

finishing

FC Botosani+0.34scores more

Rapid+0.26scores more

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Botosani ↓

Rapid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

FC Botosani or draw

74%

FC Botosani or Rapid

75%

Draw or Rapid

51%

Winning margin

FC Botosani wins by 2+

26%

Rapid wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

FC Botosani 1+ goals

80%

FC Botosani 2+ goals

47%

FC Botosani 3+ goals

21%

Rapid 1+ goals

66%

Rapid 2+ goals

29%

Rapid 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

FC Botosani (draw refunded)

66%

Rapid (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Botosani at home — creates 1.99, concedes 0.90 · 6 matches

Rapid away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.19 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Botosani attack 1.99 + Rapid defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.59

Rapid attack 1.24 + FC Botosani defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FC Botosani scores more

49%

level

25%

Rapid scores more

26%

FC Botosani at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FC Botosani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff