FC Botosani 0–1 Petrolul Ploiesti: Result & Stats

FC Botosani

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Petrolul Ploiesti

3/7/2026

Liga I · Round 30Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

FC Botosani61%

×Draw22%

Petrolul Ploiesti17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC BotosaniExpected goals in this matchPetrolul Ploiesti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

0.85

FC Botosani

1.84

Petrolul Ploiesti

0.85

FC Botosani creates 116% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.99

creates per match

0.80

0.90

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

FC Botosani

1.99

Petrolul Ploiesti

0.80

allows per match

FC Botosani

0.90

Petrolul Ploiesti

1.69

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

FC Botosani+0.34scores more

Petrolul Ploiesti+0.20scores more

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Botosani ↓

Petrolul Ploiesti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

FC Botosani or draw

83%

FC Botosani or Petrolul Ploiesti

78%

Draw or Petrolul Ploiesti

39%

Winning margin

FC Botosani wins by 2+

35%

Petrolul Ploiesti wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

FC Botosani 1+ goals

84%

FC Botosani 2+ goals

55%

FC Botosani 3+ goals

28%

Petrolul Ploiesti 1+ goals

57%

Petrolul Ploiesti 2+ goals

21%

Petrolul Ploiesti 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

FC Botosani (draw refunded)

78%

Petrolul Ploiesti (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Botosani at home — creates 1.99, concedes 0.90 · 6 matches

Petrolul Ploiesti away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.69 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Botosani attack 1.99 + Petrolul Ploiesti defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.84

Petrolul Ploiesti attack 0.80 + FC Botosani defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

FC Botosani scores more

61%

level

22%

Petrolul Ploiesti scores more

17%

FC Botosani at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "FC Botosani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff