FC Botosani 1–1 Farul Constanta: Result & Stats

FC Botosani

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Farul Constanta

7/14/2025

Liga I · Round 1Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

FC Botosani54%

×Draw22%

Farul Constanta24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC BotosaniExpected goals in this matchFarul Constanta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.26

FC Botosani

2.00

Farul Constanta

1.26

FC Botosani creates 59% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

1.99

creates per match

1.61

0.90

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

FC Botosani

1.99

Farul Constanta

1.61

allows per match

FC Botosani

0.90

Farul Constanta

2.01

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

-0.36scores less than expected

finishing

FC Botosani+0.34scores more

Farul Constanta-0.36scores less

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Botosani ↓

Farul Constanta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

FC Botosani or draw

76%

FC Botosani or Farul Constanta

78%

Draw or Farul Constanta

46%

Winning margin

FC Botosani wins by 2+

32%

Farul Constanta wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

FC Botosani 1+ goals

86%

FC Botosani 2+ goals

59%

FC Botosani 3+ goals

32%

Farul Constanta 1+ goals

72%

Farul Constanta 2+ goals

36%

Farul Constanta 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

FC Botosani (draw refunded)

69%

Farul Constanta (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Botosani at home — creates 1.99, concedes 0.90 · 6 matches

Farul Constanta away — creates 1.61, concedes 2.01 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Botosani attack 1.99 + Farul Constanta defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 2.00

Farul Constanta attack 1.61 + FC Botosani defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

FC Botosani scores more

54%

level

22%

Farul Constanta scores more

24%

FC Botosani at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FC Botosani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff