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FC Botosani vs AFC Hermannstadt — Liga I 2026

FC Botosani
FC Botosani
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
AFC Hermannstadt
AFC Hermannstadt
5/18/2025Liga ILiga I · Relegation Round - 9Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 138+ matches

FC Botosani46%
×Draw27%
AFC Hermannstadt27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Botosani
1.36
AFC Hermannstadt
0.97

FC Botosani creates 40% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 138 away

creates per match

FC Botosani
1.30
AFC Hermannstadt
0.90

allows per match

FC Botosani
1.03
AFC Hermannstadt
1.42

finishing

FC Botosani+0.00on par
AFC Hermannstadt+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Botosani ↓

AFC Hermannstadt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

FC Botosani or draw
73%
FC Botosani or AFC Hermannstadt
73%
Draw or AFC Hermannstadt
54%

Winning margin

FC Botosani wins by 2+
22%
AFC Hermannstadt wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FC Botosani 1+ goals
74%
FC Botosani 2+ goals
39%
FC Botosani 3+ goals
16%
AFC Hermannstadt 1+ goals
62%
AFC Hermannstadt 2+ goals
25%
AFC Hermannstadt 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FC Botosani (draw refunded)
63%
AFC Hermannstadt (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Botosani at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.03 · 156 matches

AFC Hermannstadt away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.42 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Botosani attack 1.30 + AFC Hermannstadt defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.36

AFC Hermannstadt attack 0.90 + FC Botosani defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FC Botosani scores more
46%
level
27%
AFC Hermannstadt scores more
27%

FC Botosani at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FC Botosani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Botosani vs AFC Hermannstadt

FC Botosani beat AFC Hermannstadt 2-1 in Liga I on May 18, 2025.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal in Botoşani.