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FC Bocholt vs TVD Velbert — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

FC Bocholt
FC Bocholt
CANC
14:30
TVD Velbert
TVD Velbert
11/29/2020Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 16Gigaset Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

FC Bocholt73%
×Draw16%
TVD Velbert12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Bocholt
2.71
TVD Velbert
1.01

FC Bocholt creates 168% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 72 away

creates per match

FC Bocholt
3.35
TVD Velbert
1.38

allows per match

FC Bocholt
0.65
TVD Velbert
2.07

finishing

FC Bocholt+0.00on par
TVD Velbert+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Bocholt ↓

TVD Velbert →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

FC Bocholt or draw
88%
FC Bocholt or TVD Velbert
84%
Draw or TVD Velbert
27%

Winning margin

FC Bocholt wins by 2+
51%
TVD Velbert wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

FC Bocholt 1+ goals
93%
FC Bocholt 2+ goals
75%
FC Bocholt 3+ goals
50%
TVD Velbert 1+ goals
64%
TVD Velbert 2+ goals
27%
TVD Velbert 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

FC Bocholt (draw refunded)
86%
TVD Velbert (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Bocholt at home — creates 3.35, concedes 0.65 · 23 matches

TVD Velbert away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.07 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Bocholt attack 3.35 + TVD Velbert defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.71

TVD Velbert attack 1.38 + FC Bocholt defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

FC Bocholt scores more
73%
level
16%
TVD Velbert scores more
12%

FC Bocholt at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "FC Bocholt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Bocholt vs TVD Velbert — Match Preview

FC Bocholt face TVD Velbert on November 29, 2020 in this Oberliga - Niederrhein fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

FC Bocholt host TVD Velbert at Gigaset Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.