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FC Bocholt vs Teutonia St.Tönis — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

FC Bocholt
FC Bocholt
CANC
14:30
Teutonia St.Tönis
Teutonia St.Tönis
3/7/2021Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 29Gigaset Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

FC Bocholt65%
×Draw18%
Teutonia St.Tönis17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Bocholt
2.60
Teutonia St.Tönis
1.27

FC Bocholt creates 105% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 21 away

creates per match

FC Bocholt
3.35
Teutonia St.Tönis
1.90

allows per match

FC Bocholt
0.65
Teutonia St.Tönis
1.86

finishing

FC Bocholt+0.00on par
Teutonia St.Tönis+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Bocholt ↓

Teutonia St.Tönis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

FC Bocholt or draw
83%
FC Bocholt or Teutonia St.Tönis
82%
Draw or Teutonia St.Tönis
35%

Winning margin

FC Bocholt wins by 2+
44%
Teutonia St.Tönis wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

FC Bocholt 1+ goals
92%
FC Bocholt 2+ goals
73%
FC Bocholt 3+ goals
47%
Teutonia St.Tönis 1+ goals
72%
Teutonia St.Tönis 2+ goals
36%
Teutonia St.Tönis 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FC Bocholt (draw refunded)
79%
Teutonia St.Tönis (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Bocholt at home — creates 3.35, concedes 0.65 · 23 matches

Teutonia St.Tönis away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.86 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Bocholt attack 3.35 + Teutonia St.Tönis defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.60

Teutonia St.Tönis attack 1.90 + FC Bocholt defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

FC Bocholt scores more
65%
level
18%
Teutonia St.Tönis scores more
17%

FC Bocholt at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "FC Bocholt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: FC Bocholt host Teutonia St.Tönis

March 7, 2021: FC Bocholt take on Teutonia St.Tönis in Oberliga - Niederrhein. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

FC Bocholt host Teutonia St.Tönis at Gigaset Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.