FC Bocholt 5–1 SV Meppen: Result & Stats

FC Bocholt

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

SV Meppen

7/1/2023

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

FC Bocholt77%

×Draw13%

SV Meppen10%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC BocholtExpected goals in this matchSV Meppen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.13

1.07

FC Bocholt

3.13

SV Meppen

1.07

FC Bocholt creates 193% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

4.17

creates per match

1.64

0.50

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

FC Bocholt

4.17

SV Meppen

1.64

allows per match

FC Bocholt

0.50

SV Meppen

2.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Bocholt+0.00on par

SV Meppen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Bocholt ↓

SV Meppen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–15%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–19%

3–25%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–17%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

FC Bocholt or draw

90%

FC Bocholt or SV Meppen

87%

Draw or SV Meppen

23%

Winning margin

FC Bocholt wins by 2+

58%

SV Meppen wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

FC Bocholt 1+ goals

95%

FC Bocholt 2+ goals

81%

FC Bocholt 3+ goals

59%

SV Meppen 1+ goals

66%

SV Meppen 2+ goals

29%

SV Meppen 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

FC Bocholt (draw refunded)

89%

SV Meppen (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Bocholt at home — creates 4.17, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

SV Meppen away — creates 1.64, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Bocholt attack 4.17 + SV Meppen defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 3.13

SV Meppen attack 1.64 + FC Bocholt defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

FC Bocholt scores more

77%

level

13%

SV Meppen scores more

10%

FC Bocholt at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "FC Bocholt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff