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FC Bocholt vs Sterkrade-Nord — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

FC Bocholt
FC Bocholt
FT
8 – 0
Sterkrade-Nord
Sterkrade-Nord
10/3/2021Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 7Gigaset Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

FC Bocholt76%
×Draw14%
Sterkrade-Nord10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Bocholt
3.10
Sterkrade-Nord
1.10

FC Bocholt creates 182% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 20 away

creates per match

FC Bocholt
3.35
Sterkrade-Nord
1.55

allows per match

FC Bocholt
0.65
Sterkrade-Nord
2.85

finishing

FC Bocholt+0.00on par
Sterkrade-Nord+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Bocholt ↓

Sterkrade-Nord →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–19%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

FC Bocholt or draw
90%
FC Bocholt or Sterkrade-Nord
86%
Draw or Sterkrade-Nord
24%

Winning margin

FC Bocholt wins by 2+
57%
Sterkrade-Nord wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

FC Bocholt 1+ goals
95%
FC Bocholt 2+ goals
81%
FC Bocholt 3+ goals
58%
Sterkrade-Nord 1+ goals
67%
Sterkrade-Nord 2+ goals
30%
Sterkrade-Nord 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

FC Bocholt (draw refunded)
88%
Sterkrade-Nord (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Bocholt at home — creates 3.35, concedes 0.65 · 23 matches

Sterkrade-Nord away — creates 1.55, concedes 2.85 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Bocholt attack 3.35 + Sterkrade-Nord defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 3.10

Sterkrade-Nord attack 1.55 + FC Bocholt defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

FC Bocholt scores more
76%
level
14%
Sterkrade-Nord scores more
10%

FC Bocholt at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "FC Bocholt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: FC Bocholt 8–0 Sterkrade-Nord

FC Bocholt beat Sterkrade-Nord 8-0 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on October 3, 2021.

The match was played at Gigaset Arena in Bocholt.