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FC Bocholt vs SF Niederwenigern — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

FC Bocholt
FC Bocholt
FT
3 – 2
SF Niederwenigern
SF Niederwenigern
9/6/2020Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 1Gigaset Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

FC Bocholt77%
×Draw14%
SF Niederwenigern9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Bocholt
2.86
SF Niederwenigern
0.91

FC Bocholt creates 214% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 38 away

creates per match

FC Bocholt
3.35
SF Niederwenigern
1.16

allows per match

FC Bocholt
0.65
SF Niederwenigern
2.37

finishing

FC Bocholt+0.00on par
SF Niederwenigern+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Bocholt ↓

SF Niederwenigern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

FC Bocholt or draw
91%
FC Bocholt or SF Niederwenigern
86%
Draw or SF Niederwenigern
23%

Winning margin

FC Bocholt wins by 2+
56%
SF Niederwenigern wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

FC Bocholt 1+ goals
94%
FC Bocholt 2+ goals
77%
FC Bocholt 3+ goals
53%
SF Niederwenigern 1+ goals
60%
SF Niederwenigern 2+ goals
23%
SF Niederwenigern 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

FC Bocholt (draw refunded)
89%
SF Niederwenigern (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Bocholt at home — creates 3.35, concedes 0.65 · 23 matches

SF Niederwenigern away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.37 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Bocholt attack 3.35 + SF Niederwenigern defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.86

SF Niederwenigern attack 1.16 + FC Bocholt defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

FC Bocholt scores more
77%
level
14%
SF Niederwenigern scores more
9%

FC Bocholt at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "FC Bocholt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Bocholt vs SF Niederwenigern

FC Bocholt beat SF Niederwenigern 3-2 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on September 6, 2020.

The match was played at Gigaset Arena in Bocholt.