FC Bocholt 3–0 Kray: Result & Stats

FC Bocholt

FT

3 – 0

Kray

10/17/2021

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 9Gigaset Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

FC Bocholt79%

×Draw13%

Kray8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC BocholtExpected goals in this matchKray

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.92

0.82

FC Bocholt

2.92

Kray

0.82

FC Bocholt creates 256% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 40 away

3.35

creates per match

1.00

0.65

allows per match

2.48

creates per match

FC Bocholt

3.35

Kray

1.00

allows per match

FC Bocholt

0.65

Kray

2.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Bocholt+0.00on par

Kray+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Bocholt ↓

Kray →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–16%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–16%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

FC Bocholt or draw

92%

FC Bocholt or Kray

87%

Draw or Kray

21%

Winning margin

FC Bocholt wins by 2+

59%

Kray wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

FC Bocholt 1+ goals

94%

FC Bocholt 2+ goals

78%

FC Bocholt 3+ goals

55%

Kray 1+ goals

56%

Kray 2+ goals

20%

Kray 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

FC Bocholt (draw refunded)

91%

Kray (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Bocholt at home — creates 3.35, concedes 0.65 · 23 matches

Kray away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.48 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Bocholt attack 3.35 + Kray defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.92

Kray attack 1.00 + FC Bocholt defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

FC Bocholt scores more

79%

level

13%

Kray scores more

8%

FC Bocholt at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "FC Bocholt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff