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FC Bocholt vs Jahn Hiesfeld — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

FC Bocholt
FC Bocholt
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Jahn Hiesfeld
Jahn Hiesfeld
2/27/2022Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 19Gigaset Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

FC Bocholt74%
×Draw15%
Jahn Hiesfeld11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Bocholt
2.90
Jahn Hiesfeld
1.07

FC Bocholt creates 171% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 22 away

creates per match

FC Bocholt
3.35
Jahn Hiesfeld
1.50

allows per match

FC Bocholt
0.65
Jahn Hiesfeld
2.45

finishing

FC Bocholt+0.00on par
Jahn Hiesfeld+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Bocholt ↓

Jahn Hiesfeld →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

FC Bocholt or draw
89%
FC Bocholt or Jahn Hiesfeld
85%
Draw or Jahn Hiesfeld
26%

Winning margin

FC Bocholt wins by 2+
54%
Jahn Hiesfeld wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

FC Bocholt 1+ goals
94%
FC Bocholt 2+ goals
78%
FC Bocholt 3+ goals
54%
Jahn Hiesfeld 1+ goals
66%
Jahn Hiesfeld 2+ goals
29%
Jahn Hiesfeld 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FC Bocholt (draw refunded)
87%
Jahn Hiesfeld (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Bocholt at home — creates 3.35, concedes 0.65 · 23 matches

Jahn Hiesfeld away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.45 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Bocholt attack 3.35 + Jahn Hiesfeld defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.90

Jahn Hiesfeld attack 1.50 + FC Bocholt defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

FC Bocholt scores more
74%
level
15%
Jahn Hiesfeld scores more
11%

FC Bocholt at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "FC Bocholt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: FC Bocholt 3–0 Jahn Hiesfeld

FC Bocholt beat Jahn Hiesfeld 3-0 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on February 27, 2022.

The match was played at Gigaset Arena in Bocholt.