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FC Bocholt vs Cronenberger SC — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

FC Bocholt
FC Bocholt
CANC
15:00
Cronenberger SC
Cronenberger SC
12/19/2020Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 20Gigaset Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

FC Bocholt78%
×Draw13%
Cronenberger SC9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Bocholt
2.92
Cronenberger SC
0.89

FC Bocholt creates 228% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 42 away

creates per match

FC Bocholt
3.35
Cronenberger SC
1.12

allows per match

FC Bocholt
0.65
Cronenberger SC
2.48

finishing

FC Bocholt+0.00on par
Cronenberger SC+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Bocholt ↓

Cronenberger SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

FC Bocholt or draw
91%
FC Bocholt or Cronenberger SC
87%
Draw or Cronenberger SC
22%

Winning margin

FC Bocholt wins by 2+
58%
Cronenberger SC wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

FC Bocholt 1+ goals
94%
FC Bocholt 2+ goals
78%
FC Bocholt 3+ goals
55%
Cronenberger SC 1+ goals
59%
Cronenberger SC 2+ goals
22%
Cronenberger SC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

FC Bocholt (draw refunded)
90%
Cronenberger SC (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Bocholt at home — creates 3.35, concedes 0.65 · 23 matches

Cronenberger SC away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.48 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Bocholt attack 3.35 + Cronenberger SC defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.92

Cronenberger SC attack 1.12 + FC Bocholt defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

FC Bocholt scores more
78%
level
13%
Cronenberger SC scores more
9%

FC Bocholt at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "FC Bocholt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: FC Bocholt host Cronenberger SC

December 19, 2020: FC Bocholt take on Cronenberger SC in Oberliga - Niederrhein. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

FC Bocholt host Cronenberger SC at Gigaset Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.