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FC Bocholt vs 1.FC Monchengladbach — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

FC Bocholt
FC Bocholt
CANC
13:30
1.FC Monchengladbach
1.FC Monchengladbach
4/18/2021Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 36Gigaset Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

FC Bocholt85%
×Draw10%
1.FC Monchengladbach5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Bocholt
3.35
1.FC Monchengladbach
0.78

FC Bocholt creates 329% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 22 away

creates per match

FC Bocholt
3.35
1.FC Monchengladbach
0.91

allows per match

FC Bocholt
0.65
1.FC Monchengladbach
3.36

finishing

FC Bocholt+0.00on par
1.FC Monchengladbach+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Bocholt ↓

1.FC Monchengladbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–14%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

FC Bocholt or draw
95%
FC Bocholt or 1.FC Monchengladbach
90%
Draw or 1.FC Monchengladbach
15%

Winning margin

FC Bocholt wins by 2+
67%
1.FC Monchengladbach wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

FC Bocholt 1+ goals
96%
FC Bocholt 2+ goals
84%
FC Bocholt 3+ goals
63%
1.FC Monchengladbach 1+ goals
54%
1.FC Monchengladbach 2+ goals
18%
1.FC Monchengladbach 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

FC Bocholt (draw refunded)
94%
1.FC Monchengladbach (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Bocholt at home — creates 3.35, concedes 0.65 · 23 matches

1.FC Monchengladbach away — creates 0.91, concedes 3.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Bocholt attack 3.35 + 1.FC Monchengladbach defence 3.36 → ÷2 → 3.35

1.FC Monchengladbach attack 0.91 + FC Bocholt defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

FC Bocholt scores more
85%
level
10%
1.FC Monchengladbach scores more
5%

FC Bocholt at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "FC Bocholt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: FC Bocholt host 1.FC Monchengladbach

April 18, 2021: FC Bocholt take on 1.FC Monchengladbach in Oberliga - Niederrhein. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

FC Bocholt host 1.FC Monchengladbach at Gigaset Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.