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FC Basel 1893 vs Trabzonspor — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

FC Basel 1893
FC Basel 1893
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Trabzonspor
Trabzonspor
2/23/2023UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Knockout Round Play-offsSt. Jakob-Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

FC Basel 189371%
×Draw19%
Trabzonspor9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Basel 1893
1.99
Trabzonspor
0.56

FC Basel 1893 creates 255% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 3 away

creates per match

FC Basel 1893
2.31
Trabzonspor
0.00

allows per match

FC Basel 1893
1.13
Trabzonspor
1.67

finishing

FC Basel 1893+0.00on par
Trabzonspor+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Basel 1893 ↓

Trabzonspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

FC Basel 1893 or draw
91%
FC Basel 1893 or Trabzonspor
81%
Draw or Trabzonspor
29%

Winning margin

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+
45%
Trabzonspor wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals
86%
FC Basel 1893 2+ goals
59%
FC Basel 1893 3+ goals
32%
Trabzonspor 1+ goals
43%
Trabzonspor 2+ goals
11%
Trabzonspor 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)
88%
Trabzonspor (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Basel 1893 at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Trabzonspor away — creates 0.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Basel 1893 attack 2.31 + Trabzonspor defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.99

Trabzonspor attack 0.00 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

FC Basel 1893 scores more
71%
level
19%
Trabzonspor scores more
9%

FC Basel 1893 at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "FC Basel 1893 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: FC Basel 1893 2–0 Trabzonspor

FC Basel 1893 beat Trabzonspor 2-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on February 23, 2023.

The match was played at St. Jakob-Park in Basel.