FC Basel 1893 3–0 Qarabag: Result & Stats

FC Basel 1893

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Qarabag

12/9/2021

UEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 6St. Jakob-Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

FC Basel 189348%

×Draw23%

Qarabag29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Basel 1893Expected goals in this matchQarabag

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.42

FC Basel 1893

1.87

Qarabag

1.42

FC Basel 1893 creates 32% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 7 away

2.31

creates per match

1.71

1.13

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

FC Basel 1893

2.31

Qarabag

1.71

allows per match

FC Basel 1893

1.13

Qarabag

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Basel 1893+0.00on par

Qarabag+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Basel 1893 ↓

Qarabag →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

FC Basel 1893 or draw

71%

FC Basel 1893 or Qarabag

77%

Draw or Qarabag

52%

Winning margin

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+

27%

Qarabag wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals

85%

FC Basel 1893 2+ goals

56%

FC Basel 1893 3+ goals

29%

Qarabag 1+ goals

76%

Qarabag 2+ goals

41%

Qarabag 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)

62%

Qarabag (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Basel 1893 at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Qarabag away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Basel 1893 attack 2.31 + Qarabag defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.87

Qarabag attack 1.71 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FC Basel 1893 scores more

48%

level

23%

Qarabag scores more

29%

FC Basel 1893 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FC Basel 1893 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff