FC Basel 1893 1–2 Lausanne: Result & Stats

FC Basel 1893

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Lausanne

A. Hunziker 61'

A. Balde 90+3'

K. Sène 6'

8/13/2023

Super League · Round 4St. Jakob-Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

FC Basel 189346%

×Draw24%

Lausanne30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Basel 1893Expected goals in this matchLausanne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.33

FC Basel 1893

1.68

Lausanne

1.33

FC Basel 1893 creates 26% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

1.87

creates per match

1.56

1.09

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

FC Basel 1893

1.87

Lausanne

1.56

allows per match

FC Basel 1893

1.09

Lausanne

1.48

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

FC Basel 1893-0.29scores less

Lausanne+0.24scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Basel 1893 ↓

Lausanne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

FC Basel 1893 or draw

70%

FC Basel 1893 or Lausanne

76%

Draw or Lausanne

54%

Winning margin

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+

24%

Lausanne wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals

81%

FC Basel 1893 2+ goals

50%

FC Basel 1893 3+ goals

24%

Lausanne 1+ goals

74%

Lausanne 2+ goals

38%

Lausanne 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)

60%

Lausanne (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Basel 1893 at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.09 · 12 matches

Lausanne away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.48 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.87 + Lausanne defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.68

Lausanne attack 1.56 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FC Basel 1893 scores more

46%

level

24%

Lausanne scores more

30%

FC Basel 1893 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FC Basel 1893 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

A. Balde

Lausanne · F

7.6

Match Events

4'

Noë Dussenne

6'

K. Sène

40'

Mamadou Kaly SeneGoal cancelled

44'

Mamadou Kaly Sene

46'

A. Hunziker← T. Barry

46'

E. Essiam← J. Augustin

59'

Aliou Balde

61'

A. Hunziker↳ W. Burger

62'

B. Labeau← K. Sène

71'

Wouter Burger

76'

S. Grippo← C. Kablan

78'

G. Sigua← L. Avdullahu

84'

J. Zé← L. Millar

84'

H. Vogel← D. Schmid

90+1'

T. Coyle← A. Sanches

90+1'

J. Roche← R. Ilie

90+3'

A. Balde

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCLausanne

Overview

54%Possession46%

11Total Shots16

1.10Expected Goals (xG)2.40

3Corners6

12Fouls19

Shots

11Total Shots16

3On Target7

5Off Target1

3Blocked8

7Inside Box13

4Outside Box3

Passing

54%Possession46%

373Total Passes312

274Accurate Passes238

73%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls19

1Yellow Cards3

3Offsides4