FC Basel 1893 2–1 Lausanne: Result & Stats

FC Basel 1893

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Lausanne

P. Kasami 76'

V. Stocker 41'

E. Guessand 90+1'

11/25/2020

Super League · Round 5St. Jakob-Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

FC Basel 189344%

×Draw24%

Lausanne33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Basel 1893Expected goals in this matchLausanne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.42

FC Basel 1893

1.68

Lausanne

1.42

FC Basel 1893 creates 18% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 7 away

1.83

creates per match

1.67

1.18

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

FC Basel 1893

1.83

Lausanne

1.67

allows per match

FC Basel 1893

1.18

Lausanne

1.53

-0.03on par

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

FC Basel 1893-0.03on par

Lausanne+0.19scores more

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Basel 1893 ↓

Lausanne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

FC Basel 1893 or draw

67%

FC Basel 1893 or Lausanne

76%

Draw or Lausanne

56%

Winning margin

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+

23%

Lausanne wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals

81%

FC Basel 1893 2+ goals

50%

FC Basel 1893 3+ goals

24%

Lausanne 1+ goals

76%

Lausanne 2+ goals

41%

Lausanne 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)

57%

Lausanne (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Basel 1893 at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.18 · 15 matches

Lausanne away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.53 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.83 + Lausanne defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.68

Lausanne attack 1.67 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FC Basel 1893 scores more

44%

level

24%

Lausanne scores more

33%

FC Basel 1893 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC Basel 1893 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

96

Jorge

FC Basel 1893 · D

8.3

Match Events

15'

Joel Geissmann

41'

V. Stocker

54'

Rafik Zekhnini

62'

Pedro Brazão← L. Da Cunha

62'

E. Guessand← R. Zekhnini

66'

Pajtim Kasami

70'

Y. Marchand← V. Stocker

71'

C. Schneuwly← J. Geissmann

73'

Andrea Padula

76'

P. Kasami↳ F. Frei

80'

G. Bares← P. Flo

80'

A. Zohouri← S. Kukuruzović

81'

R. van Wolfswinkel← F. Frei

90'

R. Petretta← E. Zhegrova

90'

J. von Moos← Afimico Pululu

90+1'

E. Guessand↳ A. Turkeš

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCLausanne

Overview

44%Possession56%

13Total Shots19

7Corners8

5Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots19

5On Target4

5Off Target10

3Blocked5

9Inside Box13

4Outside Box6

Passing

44%Possession56%

422Total Passes510

345Accurate Passes425

82%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

5Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1