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FC Basel 1893 vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

FC Basel 1893
FC Basel 1893
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
10/27/2022UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 5St. Jakob-Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

FC Basel 189358%
×Draw22%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Basel 1893
1.91
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.00

FC Basel 1893 creates 91% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 8 away

creates per match

FC Basel 1893
2.31
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0.88

allows per match

FC Basel 1893
1.13
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.50

finishing

FC Basel 1893+0.00on par
FK Zalgiris Vilnius+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Basel 1893 ↓

FK Zalgiris Vilnius →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

FC Basel 1893 or draw
81%
FC Basel 1893 or FK Zalgiris Vilnius
78%
Draw or FK Zalgiris Vilnius
42%

Winning margin

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+
34%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals
85%
FC Basel 1893 2+ goals
57%
FC Basel 1893 3+ goals
30%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1+ goals
63%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2+ goals
26%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)
75%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Basel 1893 at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

FK Zalgiris Vilnius away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Basel 1893 attack 2.31 + FK Zalgiris Vilnius defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.91

FK Zalgiris Vilnius attack 0.88 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

FC Basel 1893 scores more
58%
level
22%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius scores more
19%

FC Basel 1893 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "FC Basel 1893 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Basel 1893 vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius

FC Basel 1893 and FK Zalgiris Vilnius drew 2-2 in UEFA Europa Conference League on October 27, 2022.

The match was played at St. Jakob-Park in Basel.