FC Basel 1893 vs FK Tobol Kostanay — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 8+ matches
FC Basel 189366%
FK Tobol Kostanay14%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
FC Basel 1893 creates 145% more chances
Season form · 16 home / 8 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over58
- Under42
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
FC Basel 1893 ↓
Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
FC Basel 1893 at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches
FK Tobol Kostanay away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
FC Basel 1893 attack 2.31 + FK Tobol Kostanay defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.16
FK Tobol Kostanay attack 0.63 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.88
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 66%?"
FC Basel 1893 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 66% does not mean "FC Basel 1893 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
FK Tobol Kostanay substitutes
Head to Head
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
FC Basel 1893 host FK Tobol Kostanay on Thursday, 27 July 2023 at 17:30. The match is part of the UEFA Europa Conference League 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: FC Basel 1893 vs FK Tobol Kostanay
FK Tobol Kostanay beat FC Basel 1893 3-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on July 27, 2023.
Goals: T. Barry (25'), S. Deblé (57' pen), R. Orazov (62'), I. Chesnokov (71').
FK Tobol Kostanay controlled possession (52%) and registered 16 shots to 9.
The match was played at St. Jakob-Park in Basel.