FC Basel 1893 0–1 FC ST. Gallen: Result & Stats

FC Basel 1893

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

FC ST. Gallen

É. Youan 87'

11/7/2021

Super League · Round 13St. Jakob-Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

FC Basel 189352%

×Draw22%

FC ST. Gallen26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Basel 1893Expected goals in this matchFC ST. Gallen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

1.34

FC Basel 1893

1.97

FC ST. Gallen

1.34

FC Basel 1893 creates 47% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 16 away

1.83

creates per match

1.51

1.18

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

FC Basel 1893

1.83

FC ST. Gallen

1.51

allows per match

FC Basel 1893

1.18

FC ST. Gallen

2.10

-0.03on par

finishing

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

FC Basel 1893-0.03on par

FC ST. Gallen+0.24scores more

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Basel 1893 ↓

FC ST. Gallen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

FC Basel 1893 or draw

74%

FC Basel 1893 or FC ST. Gallen

78%

Draw or FC ST. Gallen

48%

Winning margin

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+

30%

FC ST. Gallen wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals

86%

FC Basel 1893 2+ goals

58%

FC Basel 1893 3+ goals

31%

FC ST. Gallen 1+ goals

74%

FC ST. Gallen 2+ goals

39%

FC ST. Gallen 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)

67%

FC ST. Gallen (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Basel 1893 at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.18 · 15 matches

FC ST. Gallen away — creates 1.51, concedes 2.10 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.83 + FC ST. Gallen defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.97

FC ST. Gallen attack 1.51 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

FC Basel 1893 scores more

52%

level

22%

FC ST. Gallen scores more

26%

FC Basel 1893 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FC Basel 1893 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

H. Lindner

FC Basel 1893 · G

8.3

Match Events

24'

46'

58'

58'

61'

Víctor Ruiz← I. Schmidt

69'

A. Besio← S. Diarrassouba

69'

J. Guillemenot← K. Duah

70'

Wouter Burger

76'

Dan Ndoye

82'

Lawrence Ati

82'

M. Palacios← D. Ndoye

87'

P. Sutter← B. Traorè

87'

É. Youan↳ Víctor Ruiz

88'

Joelson Fernandes← L. Millar

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCFC

Overview

56%Possession44%

12Total Shots22

8Corners8

4Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots22

3On Target9

9Off Target10

0Blocked3

10Inside Box15

2Outside Box7

Passing

56%Possession44%

431Total Passes340

303Accurate Passes228

70%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

7Saves3

Discipline

4Fouls9

3Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2